Rehearsing for another big show?

If you're a regular reader of this blog, you may recall several earlier posts this year on laser sightings by commercial pilots here in the U.S. I also featured some chilling observations on the subject from Phantom, which can be found here and here. Well, the laser sightings haven't gone away—and neither has Phantom. He's been giving this matter some further thought and has developed a compelling theory (below) that may account for the sharp uptick in the frequency of laser sightings in the closing months of 2004 and so far in 2005.

Those who cannot remember the past—as George Santayana famously observed—are condemned to repeat it. And while none of us have forgotten 9/11, some of its more important details have receded into memory's haze—details that, unfortunately, may come back to haunt us.

I'm talking specifically about the reports of "dry runs" on flights across the  United States. There were more than a few reports of these, perhaps the best known being the one described by actor James Woods.

Our adversary runs a tight ship. A military organization adhering to corporate practices. Conduct a feasibility study of your product, engage a focus group or test cases to ascertain viability and release your product. Simple but effective. A business process reengineering approach that reduces overall cost, maximizes total effect and gives a grim new meaning to the phrase "bang for your buck."

"Know thy enemy" is—and always has been—a basic precept of strategy. The more one knows, the more one understands and can exploit the vulnerabilities and weaknesses of the opposition.

So try to think for a moment like the CEO of a corporate terror organization. Here's one possibility that explains the recent laser activity.

I've written before on this site about the prospect of laser incidents involving commercial aircraft to be something more than kids going wild with laser pointers. Laser rangefinders are the most effective ranging tool today. Accurate to a fault.

And I've also explained why distance to target is critical. You don't want to waste an asset that costs $30,000 on the black market only to have it fall short due to a lack of range.

As my previous posts have noted, most MANPADs—man-portable air defense systems—have laser target acquisition devices. Point, elevate, acquire either a tone or a visual cue, and the missile will almost always hit the target.

A simple laser in the hands of a penny-pinching organization can serve a dual purpose: It can provide range to target information while at the same time provide aiming practice. Couple that approach with a GPS and one could establish fixed firing positions via waypoints on the GPS.   

We have seen numerous reports of laser activity in both mid-sized airports and large airports. At first blush, it sounds like random activity. Unless you're thinking like a corporate terrorist.

Consider the following scenario:

At a selected point in time, MANPADs are launched at landing aircraft simultaneously at a dozen or so medium sized airports. The reason you select landing aircraft is obvious: landing aircraft have to land;  aircraft taking off to a destination need not take off.

Air traffic at these dozen or so airports would be immediately redirected. Alternative airports would be selected based on reserve fuel availability. Very generally, about two hours worth. And that does not account for the fuel expenditure to get back to cruising altitude.

With certain airports closed to traffic, there is not a wide range for alternatives, especially for larger aircraft. Then the exercise becomes a high tech cattle drive. Drive them to a point where greater resources are available.

The reverse can be true—shutting down the larger airports and funneling the prey into smaller avenues at mid-sized airports.

And that is where the bulk of the carnage would take place. No fuel to divert and no option but to run the gauntlet. Or crash after the fuel was depleted.

My guess is that there would be over 200 MANPADs in the final kill zone. About 50 would be expended to drive the herd into the trap. For an investment of under $1 million, we are talking about a loss—just in aircraft—of tens of billons of dollars. And about 40,000 lives, just in airline passengers and crew.

The airlines would not survive such an event. And the ripple effect on the economy would be horrific. So horrific that it would send us into double digit unemployment and tank the stock market.

Diabolically brilliant.