The eve of destruction?

Is a new terror attack on the United States imminent?

The blogosphere has been buzzing since MEMRI published a translation of warning issued by a purported "al Qaeda Undercover Soldier, U.S.A," who calls himself Rakan Ben Williams. And it has all the makings of new season of "24." (Or maybe it's just the re-run of a previous season.)

Here are some excerpts:

I discern your wonder about this warning in which you do not quite recognize what to make of it. You are probably asking: Why would Al-Qaeda Organization announce its upcoming operations inside the mainland? Why the repeated warnings? Originally by the commander in Chief of Al-Qaeda (the victorious, by the grace of Allah), followed by the same warning through his trusted deputy, and now by Rakan Williams (Al-Qaeda’s under cover soldier in the west).

What could be the theme?

What exactly is being planned?

Could it be another one of Al-Qaeda’s tricks?

How would anyone in a right mind, while in the preparation stages, discloses the objectives? Let alone before completing the arrangements! Military experts would fully agree that such a disclosure would only come out from an insane.

However, coming from Al-Qaeda, a disclosure like this reflects one thing and one thing alone: full faith and trust in Allah. Ultimate faith in Allah and His infinite power, He (Allah) is the only true protector and helper. The conviction in our men and their unexpected abilities to prepare and carry out such missions comes second to next in our trust in Allah.

You ought not to be intolerably upset; for whoever survives this upcoming blow will have a probability to learn an amazing lesson in the art of conducting "expeditions."

                                        *   *   *

Despite the fact that the New York, Washington, Madrid, and London expeditions have been carried out a few years back. The search for clues on how they were conducted in such a successful manner is still going on and reports upon reports are still being written about them. However, the next expedition might not find someone who can provide analysis for. The top intellects, strategists, and analysts, will be totally clueless as to how to explain what occurred. Let me also inform you that we are talking about two operations, not one. The scale of one of them is larger than the other but both are large and significant. However, we will start with the smaller, and temporarily put the larger on hold to see how serious the Americans are about their lives. Should you value your own life and security, accept Muslims’ demands, but if you shall prefer death (over giving in to Muslims’ demands). Then, we, by the grace of Allah, are the best in bringing it (death) to your door steps.

                                        *   *   *

Do not put your hopes on Bush and his clan, they are incapable of protecting you, and if they think they are, let them foil or stop the two upcoming operations, and punish those who are responsible for them. But if they could not identify and foil the devastating events coming your way, you must ask yourselves: How long will we continue allowing ourselves to be slaughtered with full advance knowledge of our fate?

Let me now inform you why we opted to inform you about the two operations and your inability to stop them before they are carried out. The reason is simple; you cannot uncover or stop them except by letting them be carried out. Furthermore, the best you could do would be to accelerate the day of carrying out the operations. In other words, if we schedule the operation to take place tomorrow, the best you could do is to make it happen today.

                                        *   *   *

This indeed is a sweet situation to be in. It is a win-win all the way for us. It is the ultimate control and the most stunning way to stop an operation (accelerating it with the same impact). What we are saying is this: You will have a choice of either let us carry it out on our own schedule and with our own hands or allow your own intelligence apparatus to cause it to happen. This second choice will cause a level of dissatisfaction (with your decision makers) to reach its highest level. Therefore, your Homeland Security Agencies would have no choice but to surrender and wait for the inevitable to happen.

I will not give any more clues; this is enough as a wake up call. Perhaps the American people will start thinking about the magnitude of the danger that is coming their way.

Douglas Farah, of the indispensable Counterterrorism Blog, also notes that there's been a rise in al Qaeda chatter in recent weeks:

The level of “chatter” by al Qaeda operatives is currently as high or higher than in the months prior to 9-11, and the question in many parts of the U.S. and European intelligence communities is not if al Qaeda will strike again, but when. Much of the thinking centers on the near-term. This is also reflected in current corporate security alerts being circulated among elite business establishments.

There are several factors that point to al Qaeda at least having a plan for an imminent attack. The first is the January appearance of Osama bin Laden himself after months of silence. The second is the repeated warnings and boasts from bin Laden, Zawahiri and on al Qaeda web sites of impending action.

Several analysts I have spoken with believe the leadership of the historic al Qaeda would not raise expectations of an attack, especially at a time of intense competition with Zarqawi’s operation for the mantle of carrying out international jihad, without something important afoot. The risk of losing credibility is too high. Zawahiri is already viewed as the person carrying out action, while bin Laden and Zawahiri have been left in the roles of elder statesmen, respected but no longer operational in the field of battle.

Farah also points out that "it is within the Islamic jihad tradition to give an enemy a chance to repent and convert before carrying out an attack, as the Prophet Mohammed did. Bin Laden did this before 9-11 as well, when few were paying attention."

I don't discount the likelihood of these indicators pointing to a major new strike by al Qaeda in the U.S. And certainly the recent flap over security weaknesses at the Homeland Security headquarters in Washington, D.C.—though chiefly perceived as fodder for comedy—takes on eerie new significance (not to mention yet another life-imitates-art parallel with "24") in light of the Rakan Ben Williams warning.

But you should also keep in mind that Michael Scheuer, former chief of the CIA's bin Laden Unit, predicted a year ago that  a "warning cycle begun by bin Laden in 2002" had been brought to closure and that this set of circumstances "probably means the group is ready to attack in the United States."

That anticipated attack is now well overdue—as is this one and this one and this one and this one.

I'm not saying folks like Glenn Reynolds, Michelle Malkin, Blackfive and Jihad Watch are wrong to take this latest threat seriously. Just don't hold your breath waiting for something to happen.